The domestic pig iron market remained mostly stable today, with some regions even seeing prices climb by around 20 RMB/ton.

Macro Insights

China’s latest Qiushi magazine (Issue 18, Sept 16) highlighted the government’s efforts to curb chaotic low-price competition—a clear signal that “anti-involution” policies are back on the agenda.

Recent production data from the National Bureau of Statistics show:

• September snapshot: crude steel at 77.37 million tons (-0.7% YoY), pig iron at 69.79 million tons (+1.0% YoY), steel at 122.77 million tons (+9.7% YoY).

• January–August cumulative: crude steel 671.81 million tons (-2.8% YoY), pig iron 57.91 million tons (-1.1% YoY), steel 982.17 million tons (+5.5% YoY).

Futures Market Performance

Black metal futures closed mostly higher today:

• Iron ore fell 2.5% to 796 RMB/ton

• Coke jumped 74.5 RMB/ton to 1,688.5 RMB/ton

• Coking coal rose 50 RMB/ton to 1,187.5 RMB/ton

• Rebar increased 29 RMB/ton to 3,136 RMB/ton

• Hot-rolled coil gained 29 RMB/ton to 3,370 RMB/ton

Cost Pressure

The second round of coke price reductions has landed. On September 15, major steel mills in Shandong and Hebei cut wet coke prices by 50 RMB/ton and dry coke by 55 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, slight iron ore price dips have eased overall cost support for pig iron.

Supply & Demand Snapshot

Steel prices holding steady today helped lift market sentiment, but traders are mostly cautious, showing clear low-price withholding. Iron plants are gradually resuming production and replenishing inventories, yet downstream buying remains limited to immediate needs. Overall, trading activity is quiet.

On the bright side, policy support from the National Development and Reform Commission—focused on capacity governance and curbing disorderly competition—has boosted confidence among bullish market participants and reinforced a solid market floor.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, the domestic pig iron market is likely to stay cautiously strong tomorrow, with buyers and sellers keeping a watchful eye on both policy signals and production dynamics.