Domestic Pig Iron Market Report – July 4, 2025

Today's Market Overview
The domestic pig iron market trended strongly, with prices in some regions up by 20-40 yuan/ton.

1. Macro-economic Factors

• This week, inventory of the five major steel products edged down by 0.10 million tons to 13.3993 million tons, with no significant accumulation.

• Social inventory ↑ 1.06% MoM; steel mill inventory ↓ 2.24% MoM.

• The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the 3rd batch of 2025 "Major & Key Construction Projects".

• The full 800 billion yuan project list for 2025 has now been released.

2. Futures Market Performance

As of closing, black commodity futures continued to rally:

• Iron ore: +17.5 → 733

• Coke: +29 → 1445.5

• Coking coal: +31 → 855.5

• Rebar: +44 → 3076

• Hot-rolled coils: +46 → 3208

3. Cost-side Analysis

• Coke prices remained stable, but coke producers saw further profit compression, dampening production enthusiasm.

• Steel mills showed mild replenishment demand; iron ore prices continued to rise, strengthening short-term cost support for pig iron.

4. Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Boosted by bullish black futures trends, pig iron mills and traders widely raised quotes by 20-30 yuan/ton.

• Downstream foundries’ phased replenishment led to falling inventory at major mills, with scarce low-price resources in the market.

• Short-term outlook: The market will maintain a firm trend, but sustained growth hinges on peak-season demand realization.

5. Tomorrow’s Market Forecast

The pig iron market is expected to stay strongly bullish with a wait-and-see attitude tomorrow.