On July 3rd, China's domestic pig iron prices rose by 20-40 yuan!

Today's domestic pig iron market showed a moderately strong trend, with prices in some regions increasing by 20-40 RMB.

Macro Perspective

This week, inventory of the five major steel products (a key industry indicator) slightly decreased by 0.10 million tons to 13.3993 million tons, with no significant accumulation for the time being. Among them, social inventory increased by 1.06% MoM, while steel mill inventory dropped by 2.24%. The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of 2025 "two major categories of construction projects" (major projects and key engineering). So far, the full 800-billion-yuan list of such projects for this year has been issued.

Futures Market

At the close, major black commodity futures continued their upward trend: iron ore rose by 17.5 to 733; coke up 29 to 1445.5; coking coal up 31 to 855.5; rebar up 44 to 3076; hot-rolled coils up 46 to 3208.

Cost Side

Coke prices remained stable, but coke producers saw further profit compression, leading to low production enthusiasm. Steel mills showed a slight increase in replenishment demand, while iron ore prices continued to rise, strengthening short-term cost-side support for pig iron.

Supply and Demand

Boosted by the sustained bullish fluctuation of black commodity futures, quotations from iron producers and traders generally increased by 20-30 RMB/ton. Coupled with phased replenishment from downstream foundries, inventory of mainstream iron producers declined, and low-price resources in the market were significantly reduced. The pig iron market is expected to maintain a stable-to-strong trend in the short term, but sustained growth will depend on the substantial release of peak-season demand.

In summary, the pig iron market is likely to remain strong with a wait-and-see attitude tomorrow.