China Pig Iron Market Shows Firm Yet Cautious Sentiment

Market Overview

China’s pig iron market remained firm but cautious today. Prices showed slight upward momentum as traders and foundries continued to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid mixed signals from macroeconomic and cost factors.

Macro Environment

On October 24, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a press conference to interpret the key outcomes of the 20th Central Committee’s Fourth Plenary Session.
Zheng Shanjie, Secretary of the CPC Leadership Group and Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), emphasized that building a unified national market is essential for ensuring smooth domestic economic circulation.

He noted that China’s market access negative list has been revised four times — reduced from 328 items to just 106. Over 4,200 policies that hindered the flow of production factors have been cleared, though some bottlenecks remain.

The newly released Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development includes measures to:

• Standardize national market regulations,

• Eliminate local protectionism and market fragmentation,

• Regulate local government economic interventions,

• Strengthen unified market supervision and enforcement, and

• Address “involution-style” competition through comprehensive governance.

During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines are expected to be built or renovated nationwide, generating investment demand exceeding RMB 5 trillion — a major boost for related raw material sectors such as pig iron and ductile iron pipes.

Futures Market

As of today’s close, the ferrous futures market showed mixed trends:

• Iron ore fell by 4.5 points to RMB 771,

• Coke rose by 26.5 to 1,757.5,

• Coking coal increased by 17.5 to 1,248.5,

• Rebar dropped by 23 to 3,046,

• Hot-rolled coil edged up by 1 to 3,250.

Cost Analysis

After intense price negotiations between coking and steel producers, steel mills in Tangshan, Xingtai, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang have accepted the second round of coke price increases — raising wet-quenching coke by RMB 50/ton and dry-quenching coke by RMB 55/ton, effective October 27, 2025.
With the cost of iron ore fluctuating slightly, pig iron production costs remain strongly supported, providing a stable foundation for current price levels.

Supply and Demand

On the demand side, downstream consumption remains sluggish. Volatile futures have further heightened market caution, leading most foundries and casting enterprises to purchase only for rigid replenishment needs. Trading activity is relatively quiet.

On the supply side, however, pig iron inventories at producers remain low, and market spot availability is tight. This has effectively alleviated supply-side pressure and strengthened the market’s bottom support.

Outlook

With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, pig iron prices are expected to stay firm but face upward resistance. Overall, the market will likely maintain a steady-to-strong trend next week, with continued focus on policy-driven demand and raw material cost fluctuations.