Pig Iron Market Analysis and Forecast

Market Overview

Today, China's pig iron market operates steadily with partial increases. The price of pig iron in some regions has risen by 20-30 yuan/ton.

Macroeconomic Aspect

On October 16, the Ministry of Emergency Management held a press conference, announcing that the 2025 central work safety assessment and inspection will be launched soon. This is the first time such an assessment and inspection has been carried out in the name of the central government, aiming to promote the implementation of work safety responsibilities and measures. The press conference noted that 22 central work safety assessment and inspection teams will successively station in various regions and relevant departments to carry out the annual assessment and inspection from November to December. On October 17, Li Dawei, First-level Inspector of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance and Director of the Government Debt Research and Evaluation Center, stated that the Ministry of Finance will continue to issue the 2026 new local government debt quota in advance this year.

Futures Aspect

At the close, the main varieties in the ferrous sector showed mixed ups and downs. Iron ore fell by 1.5 points, closing at 771; coke rose by 27 points, closing at 1676; coking coal rose by 17 points, closing at 1179; rebar rose by 1 point, closing at 3037; hot-rolled coil fell by 5 points, closing at 3204.

Cost Aspect

The second round of coke price increases has started. Major coking plants in Hebei Province have raised coke prices: starting from October 20, tamped wet quenched coke will be increased by 50 yuan/ton, and tamped dry quenched coke will be increased by 55 yuan/ton. Iron ore operates in a volatile manner, and the cost support for pig iron has been strengthened.

Supply and Demand Aspect

The steel futures market continued to fluctuate, further strengthening the market's wait-and-see sentiment. Most pig iron enterprises mainly deliver orders placed before the National Day, and the inventory in the plants remains at a low level. Downstream purchases remain cautious, and new orders in the market are slightly sluggish. However, supported by high and volatile costs, iron plants have a strong willingness to maintain prices, and there is a certain upward expectation for market quotations.

Comprehensive Forecast

Comprehensively, it is expected that the pig iron price will operate steadily with a strong bias next week.