Overview of China's Domestic Pig Iron Market Today

I. Overall Market Trend

Today, China's domestic pig iron market is mainly operating in a stable and wait-and-see manner, with prices expected to remain steady in the short term.

II. Macroeconomic Policy Developments

1. 15th Five-Year Plan: On September 29th, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss and formulate major issues concerning the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting emphasized adhering to high-quality development, guiding development with new development concepts, developing new-quality productive forces in line with local conditions, and promoting sustained and healthy economic development as well as all-round social progress.

2. New Policy-Based Financial Instruments: A representative from the National Development and Reform Commission stated at a press conference that the NDRC, in collaboration with relevant parties, is actively advancing work related to new policy-based financial instruments. The total scale of these instruments amounts to 500 billion yuan, all of which will be used to supplement project capital.

III. Performance in the Futures Market

The major varieties in the black commodity futures market experienced a weak and volatile trend. Specific details are as follows:

• Iron ore fell by 12.5, closing at 784

• Coking coal fell by 71.5, closing at 1647

• Coke fell by 60.5, closing at 1154

• Rebar fell by 42, closing at 3097

• Hot-rolled coil fell by 41, closing at 3289

IV. Cost Conditions

1. Coking Coal Market: Currently, the coking coal market remains stable, with the first round of price increases partially implemented and expected to take effect on October 1st.

• Main steel mills in Tangshan, some steel mills in Xingtai and Tianjin, and individual steel mills in Shijiazhuang raised the price of stamp-curing wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and stamp-curing dry coke by 55 yuan/ton.

• The price of top-loading wet-quenched coke was increased by 70 yuan/ton, and top-loading dry-quenched coke by 75 yuan/ton. These price adjustments will take effect at midnight on October 1st, 2025.

2. Iron Ore: Despite recent volatility and weakness in the iron ore market, the cost support for pig iron remains strong.

V. Supply and Demand Analysis

1. Supply Side: The supply pressure for pig iron is limited, with inventories at various mills remaining at low levels.

2. Demand Side:

• Affected by previous price increases and the conclusion of pre-holiday procurement, high-priced transactions have slowed down, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened.

• As the National Day holiday approaches, companies are focusing on fulfilling orders, and the market sentiment is one of cautious observation.