Trends in pig iron market on 27 June 2025

Today, the domestic pig iron market mainly maintained stable operation.

Macro Perspective:

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 2,720.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, the profits of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries from January to May were 31.69 billion yuan. Yu Weining, a statistician from the Industry Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that in the next stage, it is necessary to implement more proactive and effective macro policies, focus on strengthening the domestic large cycle, enhance innovation-driven development, and solidly promote the high-quality development of industry, laying a solid foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprise benefits. In addition, the 16th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress voted on June 27 to pass the newly revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, which will come into effect on October 15, 2025. The law stipulates that the state will improve anti-unfair competition rules and systems, strengthen law enforcement and judicial practices against unfair competition, maintain market competition order, and improve a unified, open, competitive, and orderly market system to boost market confidence.

Futures Perspective:

At the close, all main black commodity futures rose. Iron ore increased by 14 to close at 716.5; coke rose by 35 to close at 1,421.5; coking coal rose by 39.5 to close at 847.5; rebar rose by 29 to close at 2,995; hot-rolled coils rose by 29 to close at 3,121.

Cost Perspective:

Coke prices remained stable temporarily. Squeezed by the high cost of raw coal, coke enterprises' profits continued to shrink. Some loss-making enterprises took the initiative to reduce production, leading to a marginal tightening of supply. Coupled with the stabilization of market sentiment, steel mills' procurement pace for coke has recovered, coke enterprises' shipments have improved, and inventory pressure at factories has eased. Iron ore fluctuated strongly, and the short-term cost support for pig iron was moderate.

Supply and Demand Perspective:

Currently, operating iron plants maintain stable production. Due to the apparent cost-performance advantage of pig iron, the procurement demand of downstream foundries has slightly warmed up, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. In addition, the black futures fluctuated strongly, and iron plants have increased their willingness to hold prices after profit margins narrowed. However, considering that terminal demand has not yet substantially improved, the upward space for pig iron prices may be limited in the short term.

Comprehensive Outlook:

It is expected that the pig iron market will operate with a strong wait-and-see attitude next week.