Analysis of Steel PMI in April 2025

On May 15, 2025, the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released key economic data, which can directly reflect the development trends of various industries. Among them, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry dropped to 49.0% in April, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. According to the interpretation rules of economic indicators, a PMI index higher than 50% indicates that the manufacturing industry is in an expansion phase, while a value lower than 50% means the manufacturing industry is contracting. The New Order Index (NOI) in April was 49.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6 percentage points; the production index also declined to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month. These data show that the number of orders obtained by the manufacturing industry has decreased, and the production pace has slowed down.

In contrast, the steel industry performed remarkably well in April. The Steel PMI reached 50.6%, a significant increase of 4.6 percentage points compared with March, indicating that the steel industry is in a rapid recovery phase. Among them, the new order index increased to 51.0%, a month - on - month increase of 9.9 percentage points, reflecting a significant increase in market demand for steel products. The order volume of enterprises has grown substantially, providing sufficient impetus for production. The production index also showed an upward trend, reaching 50.8%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that steel enterprises are actively responding to market demand and expanding production scale. 

 It is worth noting that the inventory index of steel products decreased significantly, dropping 14.9 percentage points to 35.7%, which shows that the inventory management efficiency of enterprises has been improved, the product circulation speed has accelerated, and the risk of inventory backlog has been reduced. However, the purchase price index was only 22.2%, a decrease of 13.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, meaning that the purchase price of raw materials for steel enterprises has decreased. From the perspective of enterprise cost control, the decline in raw material prices helps to reduce production costs. However, it also reflects the intense competition in the raw material market, and upstream suppliers face significant operational pressure. 

 The recovery of the steel industry is due to multiple factors. On the one hand, the country has vigorously promoted infrastructure construction projects, such as the construction of large - scale high - speed railway stations and urban subway lines. These projects have a huge demand for steel, directly driving the growth of orders and the expansion of production scale in the steel industry. On the other hand, steel enterprises have actively carried out technological innovation and developed high - strength, corrosion - resistant and other high - performance steel products. These products not only consolidate the market share in the traditional construction field but also successfully open up emerging market areas such as high - end manufacturing and new energy vehicles. 

 The recovery of the steel industry will have a significant impact on the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. For upstream raw material suppliers such as iron ore and coke, the expansion of production scale by steel enterprises will increase raw material procurement volume, driving the development of upstream industries. For downstream industries such as automobile manufacturing and mechanical equipment, stable steel prices and sufficient supply will help reduce their production costs and enhance the market competitiveness of their products. 

 However, the steel industry still faces many challenges in the future. At the international level, trade frictions and complex geopolitical situations may hinder steel exports; in the domestic market, the problem of overcapacity has not been completely resolved, and competition among enterprises remains fierce. Steel enterprises need to continuously increase investment in technological research and development, optimize the industrial structure, and enhance their comprehensive strength to achieve sustainable development in a complex and changing market environment.